What Could a Trump Presidency Mean for AGOA and Uganda?

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has served as a critical link between the United States and sub-Saharan Africa since its inception in 2000. This legislation provides eligible African countries, including Uganda, with duty-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of goods, supporting economic growth and fostering greater U.S.-Africa trade ties. As political winds shift in the United States, there is often a renewed focus on international trade agreements. With the possibility of a Trump administration returning to office, businesses, and policymakers in Uganda may consider what a shift in U.S. leadership might mean for AGOA and the broader U.S.-Uganda trade relationship.

Uganda is renowned for its high-quality Arabica and Robusta coffee, which thrives in the country's favorable climate and rich volcanic soils. As a significant player in the global coffee market, Uganda benefited from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for several agricultural products, including coffee.

1. Trade Priorities and Policy Shifts

Under the first Trump administration, “America First” policies prioritized U.S. manufacturing and self-reliance. While trade deals with nations such as Mexico, China, and Canada underwent significant changes, AGOA remained in place, reflecting a relatively consistent U.S. approach to African trade. However, a potential second Trump presidency might bring renewed scrutiny to AGOA, as the U.S. examines trade agreements that do not necessarily emphasize reciprocal arrangements.

For Uganda, any revisions to AGOA could have implications for sectors that rely on the current tariff-free status, such as agriculture, textiles, and crafts. While a sudden policy overhaul may not be likely, businesses in Uganda might benefit from preparing for possible adjustments to AGOA's structure or requirements that could shift in a more protectionist direction.

2. Opportunities for Ugandan Exports and Investment

AGOA has been a gateway for Ugandan products, notably coffee, honey, and textiles, to reach American consumers. This arrangement not only boosts exports but also creates jobs and expands industries that might otherwise struggle to compete in global markets. A Trump administration could potentially see AGOA through a new lens, focusing more on high-value imports and less on non-industrial products, which could open opportunities for agricultural innovation, higher-value crop investments, and diversified exports from Uganda.

Additionally, if U.S. businesses are encouraged to invest in African production, Uganda could become a favorable location for companies looking to enter East African markets and beyond.

3. The Role of Uganda in the U.S.-China Dynamic

Uganda’s relationship with China has been a focal point in the region, especially given China’s role as a prominent investor and infrastructure provider. A Trump administration, which previously viewed China as a competitor, may seek to counterbalance China’s influence in Africa through strategic trade alliances. For Uganda, this could mean expanded trade and investment opportunities under AGOA, as the U.S. attempts to build stronger African partnerships to offer an alternative to Chinese investments.

4. Potential for AGOA Adjustments and Extensions

AGOA is currently set to expire in 2025, and its future may be shaped by the priorities of the next U.S. administration. While the act has historically received bipartisan support, a Trump presidency could lead to reforms that adjust the scope of AGOA to better align with “America First” goals. This may translate into closer oversight, additional eligibility requirements, or sector-specific changes that require Ugandan exporters to demonstrate added value.

By preparing for potential revisions to AGOA’s requirements, Ugandan businesses can position themselves to meet evolving standards, ensuring they retain access to U.S. markets.

5. Enhancing Uganda’s Economic Resilience

Regardless of the specific approach a Trump presidency might take, Uganda’s economic resilience will be critical. Diversifying trade partners, enhancing product quality, and expanding into new U.S. states or sectors can help mitigate any potential AGOA changes. By focusing on sectors aligned with U.S. demand—such as high-quality agricultural products, sustainable crafts, and cultural tourism—Uganda can fortify its position as a valuable trade partner.

AGOA continues to play a vital role in the U.S.-Uganda trade relationship, and while political shifts may introduce changes, Uganda’s preparation and adaptability can ensure continued benefits from this crucial trade program.